Sept. 15 is normally a quiet day on the NHL calendar. Players are usually just starting to reconvene for training camps and everyone is trying to enjoy the last bit of summer. But this year it was all business.
A handful of massive long-term deals were handed out, as organizations tried to take advantage of the final day that eight-year pacts were permitted. It was also the last chance for teams to build contracts under the current structure before signing bonuses are capped. That led teams to make a number of bets on some relatively inexperienced players, with the hopes that overpaying a little today might end up in a great value deal further down the line.
I’m not referring to players like Cale Makar and Drake Batherson, who both signed eight-year deals recently. Those guys have a proven pedigree and their contracts weren’t about gambling on future value as much as the Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators respectively wanted to secure key members of their core for the long haul.
I’m talking about someone like Ville Koivunen of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who inked an eight-year, $32-million contract back in August. Koivunen has played in just 47 career games and boasts only two goals. Pens general manager Kyle Dubas isn’t paying Koivunen for what he’s proven, but instead hoping he turns into a 15-20-goal scorer and the deal looks like a shrewd move sooner rather than later.
Let’s break down a few other long-term deals of a similar strategy and look at the chances of them aging well or poorly.
Fraser Minten, Boston Bruins
Extension: 7 years, $7.2M cap hit
Career numbers: 107 games played, 20 goals, 40 points
Minten was the centrepiece of the Brandon Carlo deal and quickly proved his value in his first full season with the Bruins after being acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs. The 22-year-old tallied 17 goals and 35 points last season, while playing all 82 games for a Boston team that surprised many by qualifying for the playoffs. He moved up and down the lineup and often played down the middle in a middle-six role, acclimating himself well to the centre position as a youngster.
Why the deal should age well
Even if Minten doesn’t become a force offensively, there are enough other elements to his game that should make him a serviceable player. He started more than 46 per cent of his shifts in the defensive zone last season and finished as a plus-21, proving he’s more than capable of handling some significant defensive responsibilities already. Minten also improved his faceoff percentage greatly in his first full year in the NHL, clicking at just under 50 per cent in 2025-26. Keep in mind, he’s still only 22 with barely 100 games under his belt, so things like being strong on the draw and defensive acumen should only improve as he gains more experience.
Considering where the cap is going, even if Minten turns into a quality third-line centre who is responsible in his own end but is limited offensively, that AAV should still be palatable for the Bruins.
Reason for concern
Minten doesn’t have to be a huge point producer to justify this deal, but if he’s going to play in the top nine consistently, he’s going to have to score more than 35 points annually. As far as high second-round picks go, Minten wasn’t a major contributor offensively during his time in junior, tallying just 188 points in 187 games. If you’re barely scoring a point per game in junior, that usually translates to a much lower output when a player reaches the National Hockey League.
The 17 goals last season were nice, but almost half of them came during a hot streak in January. After that, Minten scored just three goals for the remainder of the season and didn’t register a point during Boston’s first-round exit versus the Buffalo Sabres. The cap is going up, but if you’re making more than $7 million, you’re still going to have to be more consistent offensively. Minten doesn’t have to be an 80-point player to justify this deal, but he should at least be close to a 50-point player, and the jury is still out on whether he can get there.
Zeev Buium, Vancouver Canucks
Extension: 8 years, $9.38M cap hit
Career numbers: 76 games played, 6 goals, 26 points
The 12th-overall pick from the 2024 draft, Buium was brought to Vancouver as the key part of the return in the Quinn Hughes deal. It’s going to be impossible for Buium to fill Hughes’ shoes, but the Canucks are counting on him to be their number one defenceman of the future and have gambled by paying him more than $75 million on a massive deal. There’s no doubt Buium is talented and his elite offensive numbers in college are evidence of that, so Vancouver will be hoping that skillset translates to the next level in the not-so-distant future.
Why the deal should age well
The Canucks are clearly building their blue line around Buium and plan to make him the cornerstone of the unit for the next decade, so if he becomes a legit number one defender, there’s good value in this deal. Buium will be making less than half of what Makar just extended for, and although he’s nowhere near the Avalanche blueliner right now from a production perspective, he doesn’t have to be. If Buium can score 60-plus points and quarterback a power play, which feels fairly realistic, this contract is probably going to feel like a steal in a few short years.
Plus, Filip Hronek is locked up for the next six years as well and should be a steady veteran presence to pair with Buium and help him maximize his talents. Buium should feel comfortable spreading his wings offensively playing next to a safety net like Hronek.
Reason for concern
Buium really hasn’t accumulated any body of work that would make you feel extremely confident in this deal. It doesn’t mean that it won’t work out well for the Canucks, but they could’ve waited until next summer when Buium had another full season to evaluate. For instance, when Lane Hutson signed his extension, he already had a 66-point season to his credit and Luke Hughes had years of 47 and 44 points before he inked his. Buium hasn’t produced anything close to that and a year from now he’ll be making more than both players. The Hughes and Hutson deals were signed before everything changed financially for players this summer, but Vancouver is still making a leap of faith where Buium is concerned.
Ryan Leonard, Washington Capitals
Extension: 8 years, $10.5M cap hit
Career numbers: 84 games played, 21 goals, 46 points
This one was probably the most eye-popping of the bunch, as Leonard gets a huge payday before he’s even played 100 games. Leonard was a top-10 pick in 2023 but played two full seasons at Boston College before making his debut with the Caps. He was worth the wait, scoring 20 goals for Washington in his first year and the Capitals tried to get ahead of the curve and secured a player they believe can be one of the next great power forwards in the NHL.
Why the deal should age well
Leonard has a unique blend of size and skill that every organization covets. Anyone who can score 20 goals and assert themselves physically is going to be a huge asset and Leonard should only get better at using his size as he gains more experience. There may be no better player for Leonard to mold his game after than teammate Tom Wilson, who can help the youngster get the most out of his game. Wilson has turned into a 30-goal scorer who is still one of the most physical players in the league, earning himself a spot on Team Canada at the Olympics in the process. Even if Leonard becomes “Tom Wilson light,” he’s going to be a force.
Reason for concern
It’s really hard to say what Leonard’s offensive ceiling is, but it doesn’t feel like it’s much more than 70-75 points. With a $10.5-million cap hit, you’re hoping he’s closer to 40 goals in this scenario, but when will he get there? Leonard opened camp this week on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome, but it will be no easy task to maintain a spot in the top six. The Caps just paid significant money and assets to add Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou this offseason to go along with other talented wingers Wilson and Aliaksei Protas, all of whom are locked up long term and will be hard to supplant. Power play time will be hard to come by, too.
I’d also be mildly concerned about injuries if Leonard tries to exert his physicality more. He already missed time last year with an upper-body injury after a hit from Jacob Trouba and his style of play could potentially lend itself to more frequent ailments. All this is to say that Leonard is going to have to provide such a unique skill set that he becomes so invaluable that the Caps can overlook a lack of elite offensive production.
Justin Sourdif, Washington Capitals
Extension: 8 years, $6.35M cap hit
Career numbers: 82 games played, 16 goals, 36 points
Sourdif never really gained traction in Florida and the Caps scooped him up in a trade last summer, which is turning into a great move for Washington. The 24-year-old made the most of limited ice time last season, scoring 15 times despite getting only 14:44 of average ice time per game. Sourdif provided the Capitals' key secondary scoring and now feels like a luxury after all the players the team added this offseason.
Why the deal should age well
This isn’t an astronomical cap hit even by today’s standards and Sourdif would really have to struggle down the line to make this feel like a major mistake. Given the projections we’re seeing for the cap a few years from now, this seems like a perfectly fair deal for Sourdif if he can just maintain the production he displayed this past season. If he can improve on it with some additional playing time, even slightly, it’s going to make the contract look even better.
There’s also an added bonus with the flexibility Sourdif provides, as he can play down the middle if needed. You can never have too many centres and players that give you 15-20 goals that you can shift around your lineup aren’t easy to find.
Reason for concern
It’s a lot of term for a very small sample size. I noted that Sourdif is currently a luxury for the Capitals and right now he’s slotted in as their fourth-line centre. That's perfectly acceptable for 2026-27 as Sourdif’s extension doesn’t kick in for another year and he’ll be making just $825,000 for this season. But when that extension kicks in, it will be hard to justify paying him more than $6 million if Sourdif is still a fourth liner, even with the cap skyrocketing. Maybe one day that will be the norm, though that day isn’t going to be coming for at least several years. I’m sure there are a number of players you can find making a fraction of what Sourdif is going to get that can centre a fourth line. The Caps run the risk of having any value they pocket on the back half of Sourdif’s deal getting cancelled out on the first few years of the contract when it may seem like an overpay.
